Can Democrats Survive the Midterm or is a Red Wave Inevitable?
Get caught up on the latest odds, stakes, plus my analysis and predictions for the midterm election coming up in now less than a week.
The Midterm election is now less than a week away, and to many, especially young people, this could seem to be one of the most consequential midterms in recent memory. Many issues center to the lives of many Americans have become center point in this election ranging from inflation and the economy to abortion with the overturn of Roe v. Wade, all while the shadow of election denial and a possibly Trump 2024 run looming over politics. While the Biden administration held the narrowest of Congressional majorities for the past two years, the Democrats were still able to pass significant legislation over the term. A very probable win in the House for Republicans would stall legislation, and even more consequentially a Senate win would allow Republicans to handicap the last two years of Biden’s term. So, who will win and which races are the battlegrounds that will decide control of the country?
What are the Key Races in the Midterm Election?
With the combination of a strong environment for Republicans, redistricting advantages, and historical trends where the party in power almost always loses seat in the midterm, a Republican House victory at this point is pretty much inevitable. The real question in the House is how many seats the Republicans pick up which matters greatly for pushing investigations and possible impeachment. Overall however, the fate of the country really lies in the Senate races and truly only five individual races.
The following is a list of the Senate races in play in this election and their current polling average from Real Clear Politics:
PA: Mehmet Oz(R) +2.6 vs. John Fetterman(D)
NH: Don Bolduc(R) +0.8 vs. Maggie Hassan(D)
NV: Catherine Cortez Masto(D) +1.1 vs. Adam Laxalt(R)
AZ: Mark Kelly(D) +2.0 vs. Blake Masters(R)
GA: Herschel Walker(R) +1.1 vs. Raphael Warnock(D)
WA: Patty Murray(D) +5.3 vs. Tiffany Smiley(R)
WI: Ron Johnson(R) +6.9 vs. Mandela Barnes(D)
OH: J.D. Vance(R) +8.0 vs. Tim Ryan(D)
While they are certainly still in play, I believe the races in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Washington are safely out of reach. The exception to this could be Washington which has trended towards the Republican Tiffany Smiley, but if Washington were to go Republican we can be almost assured that every other race also went Republican and we have a true red wave year. Similarly if J.D. Vance or Ron Johnson were to lose we can almost say for sure the election is disastrously for Republicans. Let’s take a quick look at each of the remaining five races that are securely in play. Since only Pennsylvania is a Republican held seat, the Republicans only need to pick up two of these five battleground races to win the Senate.
Nevada is currently in my opinion the safest pickup for Republicans. The race pins former Nevada attorney general Adam Laxalt against incumbent Democrat and also former attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto. While this race has not gotten as much national attention as some of the others on this list, it has long been one of the most competitive and as the national mood has moved in favor of the Republicans, Laxalt has pushed from being competitive in the race to being securely in the Republicans favor. Laxalt also has the advantage with the state of Nevada safely trending Republican in recent elections from +13 to Obama in 2012, +7 to Obama in 2016, to now only +2.5 to Biden in 2020.
Arizona is possibly the biggest bellwether election in the cycle. While incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly has held a significant lead throughout most of the election Blake Masters has been able to catch up and is now barely trailing in polling. These recent polls also do not account for the Libertarian candidate Marc Victor that yesterday dropped out of the election and endorsed Masters. While Victor was only polling between 1 and 2% of the vote, that is a very significant amount of votes that if Masters picks up could push him over the edge.
Georgia is probably the hardest race to make any prediction on. Republican Herschel Walker whose campaign has been plagued with controversy has survived in polling to keep the race over incumbent Raphael Warnock a dead heat. While the race currently trends to Walker, Georgia has the additional complexity that the winning candidate will need to pick up at least 50% of the vote in order to win, else the race will go to a run off later in the year which could completely change the race. Perhaps Walker’s biggest advantage is his possible to coattail off of popular Georgia governor and Trump detractor Brain Kemp who has a big lead over repeat challenger Stacey Abrams.
Pennsylvania has been my personal favorite race to follow and is also extremely complex and hard to predict. While Dr. Mehmet Oz had a favorable start to his candidacy in the Republican primary, since he has faced off against Pennsylvania Lieutenant governor John Fetterman he has struggled causing Fetterman to lead heavily all Summer and into the fall. However Fetterman having suffered a stroke in late spring has called into serious question his health and fitness to serve. After choosing to engage in a debate last week against Oz, Fetterman has dropped off significantly in the polls although the race remains tight. I can say with pretty solid certainty that if Oz is able to pull off the comeback it will be much more about Fetterman’s health and not Oz’s actual ability to win the election on his own merits.
New Hampshire is the last race we will look at and one that I am surprised to be mentioning here. As New Hampshire is my home state I have been following this race very closely, and after Republican former General Don Bolduc won the primary against New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse, I completely tossed the race to the Democrats. However Bolduc has significantly outperformed expectations and in yesterday’s Saint Anselm College poll, he performed very well 48% - 47% over Hassan. I would consider this race a wildcard and while it appears very possible Bolduc could win, I doubt this would be a difference maker. It’s tough to see a situation where Republicans lose in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania but manage to pick up New Hampshire, but this is certainly a key part of a Republican landslide victory and would spell doomsday for the Democrats who significantly funded Bolduc in the Republican primary in attempting to pick their own challenger for Hassan.
My Predictions: Five Outcomes for the Senate
Now that we have laid out the key races for the Senate, let’s look at what I see as the five outcomes for the Senate. Obviously is room for many of these races to be a surprise but in general if we see the night unfold in favor of Republicans or Democrats that will hold true for the rest of the country. Also as the Senate trends more towards Republicans or Democrats we can expect the house to have a similar outcome.
Outcome 1: Dems Sweep and Win the Senate (5%)
In this scenario Democrats win the Senate by holding all of their seats including GA (either in the runoff or general), Nevada, and picking up Pennsylvania. If these seats hold we can assume New Hampshire and Arizona are also safe. There is also a nightmare scenario for Republicans that Mandela Barnes has a from behind victory in Wisconsin that allows the Dems to possibly lose either Pennsylvania or Nevada and still pull off the win, although I would not see that as likely. Democrats Win the Senate 51-49.
Outcome 2: Dems Hold and Repeat Georgia Run off Win (15%)
This is the most likely outcome where I see the Democrats retaining hold of the Senate. If every race ends up being tighter than expected, and the Democrats get easy wins in New Hampshire and Arizona while winning at least 1 of Nevada and Pennsylvania we would likely see a repeat of the 2020 election where the Senate is 49-50 Republicans with a Georgia runoff election to decide control. While it is thought to predict how the national environment will change by then I have trouble seeing Republicans take the runoff election. Democrats hold control 50-50.
Outcome 3: Republicans Get Tight Win, Georgia Run off in the air (20%)
While I would predict a greater Republican win (see below) it is certainly a possibility that the election will be tighter than we predict. In this scenario Republicans pick up Nevada and Pennsylvania while tightly losing Arizona and New Hampshire. This would clinch the election for Republicans and I would again see Georgia heading to a run off. With Senate control out of the question I would give a stronger edge to Walker in a runoff, but Democrats could still mobilize to prevent a stronger Republican majority. Republicans Win the Senate 51-48 on election night.
Outcome 4: Strong Republican Victory (45%)
This is the area I see as the most likely outcome. Every race has been trending in the Republican direction and with good signs in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Arizona the national temperament is certainly anti Democrat. In this situation I see a tight Blake Masters victory which would all but guarantee a win in Nevada as well. We would also see an Oz win in Pennsylvania, a potential Walker win in Georgia and a very tight New Hampshire race. I would still predict New Hampshire to go Democrat, and Georgia could certainly still go to a run off, but with a Republican sweep of the most competitive races, the runoff would be a much better situation for Republicans. Republicans Win the Senate 53-47.
Outcome 5: Republican Sweep (15%)
While many on the right see the latest polls as an indication of a true red wave, I am not as optimistic for their chances. Regardless it is a real possibility that the polls are once again very wrong in favor of Democrats and Republicans could pull out a massive win. This Republicans would win every toss up race including New Hampshire and Georgia and also pick up Washington from Patty Murray which although a longshot, has become a possible pick up. Republicans Win 55-45.
What to Watch for and My Final Predictions
As we watch the results come in Tuesday night here a few things to watch for that would signal towards which outcome we are heading for:
If Bolduc leads in New Hampshire we are looking at Outcomes 4/5
If Masters leads Arizona Republicans should win and Outcome 4 is likely
An Oz loss would spell serious trouble for Republicans. Look for Outcomes 2/3
If Warnock is able to win Georgia on election night we could be seeing a Dem win
Since Republicans only need to pick up 2 of the 5 competitive races all Republicans need to win is Nevada and Pennsylvania so seeing either of these go Democrat would likely leave control of the Senate up to a Georgia runoff.
While so much of these elections are up to chance here are my final predictions for each contested race:
PA: Oz Wins +2
GA: Walker Wins <1% Runoff
NV: Laxalt Wins +4
AZ: Masters Wins <1%
NH: Hassan Wins +1
WA: Murray Wins +4
Senate Outcome: Republicans Win Control 52-47 + Georgia Runoff